I’ll start with politics this morning. There are three races I’m watching: California, Kentucky, and Nevada. Presently, Boxer is leading in polling in CA, Paul is leading in KY, and Reid is even with Angle in NV. The GOP needs to pull 2 of 3 to have a chance at retaking the Senate. If they pull 3 of 3, the GOP will most definitely retake the Senate. My intuition is the GOP wins 1 of 3. The House will follow a similar dynamic, but be easier for the GOP to reclaim. I don’t believe it is a given that the GOP will reclaim the House, but I’m not surprised that people are pushing for that expectation. I think the generic ballot is deceiving a lot of people due to the GOP’s enormous edge in the South that is bringing up the national numbers.
Since I’m bored at the moment, I’ll go ahead and analyze all the Senate contested races. First, the Senate sits at 40 Dems and 23 Reps who aren’t facing re-election. The Democrats add 6 basically uncontested seats, and the GOP adds 13. That puts the divide at 46/36.
Arkansas (GOP +1) – Rasmussen’s August 18th poll puts Hussman at 65%. For an incumbent, that is locked election territory. Hussman isn’t an incumbent so this is true more-so. Democratic Party candidate is Lincoln.
California (toss up) – The Republicans nominated moderate Fiorini to go against Boxer. Rasmussen’s August 3rd poll had Boxer favored 45-40. This is a bad sign for Boxer. An incumbent should be polling above 50%, anticipating that undecideds will break for the challenger. Fiorini seems to be a good candidate with money. I think this race will be decided by under 5%.
Colorado (GOP +1) – This seat currently sees Buck over Bennett by 46-41. Buck is Tea Party endorsed. Bennett was nominated for this seat when Salazar was plucked for the Obama administration. I’m not quite sure I would apply the incumbent rule here. For the Democrats to retain this seat, they are going to have to go to negative advertising early. Strongly ideological candidates tend to make unforced errors.
Connecticut (Dem +1) – Blumenthal leads WWE heiress McMahon 47-40. McMahon has spent $21MM to Blumenthal’s $1MM and doesn’t have anything to show for it.
Delaware (GOP +1) – Republican Castle is over Democrat Coons by 12 points at this point. Castle is moving up from the statewide House seat, so he should probably to given the incumbent treatment. At 49%, he is in pretty good position. He would have to get to 46 or below for this to get back into play.
Florida (GOP +1, even if Crist wins) – A 3-way race is fast becoming a 2-way race. If the Meek (D) spends a couple weeks under 20%, voters will start fleeing. Crist is presently benefiting from Democratic crossovers. Presently the Republican Rubio is in the lead. Alternatively, if Rubio opens a 10-point lead on Crist, look for Dems to flee back to Meek.
Illinois (toss up) – Obama’s former seat sees Giannoulias (D) and Kirk (R) tied in the latest polling. Intuitively, I think Giannoulias should win.
Indiana (GOP +1) – Evan Byah’s former seat sees Coats (R) as a 20-point favorite over Ellsworth (D). This seat is in dead girl/live boy territory.
Kentucky (toss up) – The GOP nominated a terrible candidate in Rand Paul making this seat competitive. Presently he leads Conway 51 to 41 accordingly to Rasmussen, but other polling has him near even. I think Paul has peaked and the only question is if his support now will survive until election day.
Louisiana (GOP +1) – Vitter leads Melancon 53 to 35.
Missouri (GOP +1) – Republican Blunt appears to be consolidating support quickly over Democrat Carnahan.
Nevada (Dem +1) – The GOP nominated an atrocious candidate in Sharon Angle. The latest Rasmussen gives her a 2 point advantage, but it is difficult to see how a birther will ultimately pull off a win. Like Sarah Palin, it is not a matter of if she has an unforced error.
New Hampshire (Dem +1 Toss up) – Incumbent Leahy has a 30 point lead and re-election assured. I made some erroneous clicks and JH down below corrected me.
Ohio (GOP +1) – Republican Portman has a 9-point lead over Democrat Fisher. He appears to be consolidating support. Portman needs a short swing to get this race back to competitive. Without that, it’s doubtful he’ll get national financial support.
Pennsylvania (GOP +1) – Republican Toomey is up 8 points against Democrat Sestak. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sestak eventually plucks this seat. Pennsylvania is becoming like much of the northeast, GOP not welcome. I expect the late breaks will go for Democrats in this area. Toomey is a good candidate and shouldn’t make unforced errors.
Washington (toss up) – Polling is about even for incumbent Democrat Murray versus Rossi. She has spent $6.5MM to be even versus Rossi who has spent $200K. This could very easily be a GOP steal in an unfriendly state.
West Virginia (Dem +1) – Manchin leads Raese by 15 for Byrd’s former seat. Raese could very easily make this a race. Manchin should be looked at as an incumbent, given that he is the current governor. Expect breaks to got Raese. Judging by his campaign site, Raese could very easily succumb to unforced errors, specifically on illegal immigration.
Wisconsin (Dem +1) – Russ Feingold appears to have a challenge in businessman Ron Johnson. Johnson has been running a Huckabee-esque campaign of self-deprecating humor. Feingold may just displace Narcissus for an example of something to be avoided. This is the most difficult election for Feingold. As much as I dislike Feingold, I think Johnson will end up making some unforced errors.
Overall, I think the distance from the health care vote will continue to help Democrats. At some point the Democrats are going to be able to say, “We still haven’t seen the end of the world as we know it, have we?” In the end, I think the economy will be the deciding factor. The running totals for the races I called above are 51-45 and four toss ups 50-24 and five toss ups.
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